Tuesday

Living in the Enshittification Age

 Chatgpt, what is enshittification? Please provide examples.

Enshittification is a term coined by tech writer Cory Doctorow to describe the process by which digital platforms (social media, marketplaces, apps, etc.) gradually degrade in quality as they shift priorities—from serving users, to serving business customers (advertisers, sellers, etc.), to maximizing profit extraction for the company itself.

The pattern usually looks like this:

Stage 1 – Good to users: The platform offers great value (free or cheap services, convenience, high-quality features) to attract a large user base.

Stage 2 – Favor business partners: Once users are hooked, the platform shifts to favor businesses—charging for visibility, tweaking algorithms to push paid placements, or limiting organic reach.

Stage 3 – Extract from everyone: Finally, the platform prioritizes its own profits at the expense of both users and business partners, often leading to a worse experience for all and a slow decline.

Example:
Facebook/Instagram

Early days: You saw posts from friends and family in chronological order—great user experience.

Middle phase: Businesses and creators were encouraged to build pages and got free organic reach—great for businesses.

Later: Algorithms started throttling organic reach, forcing businesses to pay for ads, while users got flooded with sponsored content and “engagement bait.” Now both users and businesses often feel shortchanged, while the platform maximizes ad revenue.

Example: Microsoft Teams & Office 365 ecosystem

Stage 1 – Great for users:
Microsoft Teams launched during the pandemic with free or bundled access in Office 365.
It was lightweight, fairly easy to use, and organizations quickly adopted it because it integrated with familiar Microsoft products.

Stage 2 – Favor business customers/lock-in:
Microsoft deepened integration so businesses using Office 365 found it hard to avoid Teams.
Some competitors (like Slack) complained that bundling Teams with Office unfairly pushed customers into Microsoft’s ecosystem.
Businesses benefited from the centralization, but competition was squeezed.

Stage 3 – Extract from everyone:
Microsoft began layering in more paid features and premium tiers.
Users noticed bloat (slower performance, cluttered UI, confusing updates) and more nudges to upgrade to higher-cost Microsoft 365 plans.
Both businesses and end users now often feel trapped: leaving is costly, staying means tolerating a product that feels increasingly monetized.

Another smaller-scale example:
Windows itself once gave clean desktop experiences. Over time, it’s become filled with pre-installed apps, ads in the Start Menu, aggressive nudges toward Microsoft Edge, OneDrive, and paid services—classic enshittification.

How about post World War II federal goverment through today?

That’s a sharp question — and yes, you can think of the trajectory of the U.S. federal government since World War II in terms of enshittification, though Doctorow uses the word for tech platforms. The same pattern — serving citizens well, then serving special interests, then mostly serving itself — can be mapped.

Trajectory of Enshittification: U.S. Federal Government, Post–WWII → Today

Stage 1 – Serving the people (High trust era, 1945–1970s)
After WWII, the U.S. expanded programs that directly benefited citizens:
The GI Bill sent millions of veterans to college and into the middle class.
Huge investments in infrastructure (Interstate Highway System).
Medicare and Medicaid expanded healthcare access.
Trust in government institutions was high. Citizens saw direct improvements in daily life.

Stage 2 – Serving business and special interests (1970s–2000s)
Economic crises (oil shocks, stagflation) shifted policy toward deregulation and privatization.
Lobbying and campaign finance exploded after decisions like Buckley v. Valeo (1976) and Citizens United (2010).
Policy often favored corporations and wealthy donors over broad public benefit:
Financial deregulation helped Wall Street more than Main Street.
Tax policy tilted toward the wealthy and big business.
Military-industrial complex spending boomed.
Citizens got less direct benefit, but corporate and political elites prospered.

Stage 3 – Extracting from everyone (2000s–today)
Gridlock and polarization make government less responsive to citizens.
Public goods (infrastructure, education, healthcare) lag behind peer countries.
Citizens experience more bureaucratic friction (complex taxes, healthcare billing, student loans) while corporations and the wealthy exploit loopholes.
Increasing surveillance, corporate lobbying dominance, and political polarization mean the government is often seen as working for itself or entrenched interests, not the average person.
Trust in government has cratered — from ~75% in the 1960s to under 20% today.

So the arc looks like this:

Postwar → “Golden age” of broad-based public investment.
Late 20th century → tilt toward corporate and elite interests.
21st century → extraction and gridlock, with citizens stuck paying more and getting less.

Chatgpt

Donald Trump and Right Wing Authoritarian Followers

The late social scientist Robert Altermyer wrote a book called The Authoritarians. In it he describes "social dominators" and seperately "right wing authoritarian" followers. In a side by side comparison what makes them different from each other? Where do their interests overlap?

ChatGPT:

Robert Altemeyer’s book The Authoritarians offers a detailed psychological profile of two distinct but often mutually reinforcing personality types: Social Dominators (SDOs) and Right-Wing Authoritarian Followers (RWAs). While they may end up on the same political or ideological “team,” they differ greatly in motivation, behavior, and worldview.

Here is a side-by-side comparison of the two types, followed by an explanation of where their interests overlap:


Side-by-Side Comparison

TraitSocial Dominators (SDOs)Right-Wing Authoritarian Followers (RWAs)
Core MotivationPower, dominance, winningObedience, conformity, security
Personality StyleManipulative, strategic, ruthlessLoyal, fearful, deferential
View of AuthorityWant to be the authorityWant to obey the authority
MoralityEnds justify the means; amoralMoral absolutism; “good vs evil” thinking
Attitude Toward OthersContemptuous of the weakHostile to out-groups but loyal to in-group
EmpathyLow to noneModerate for in-group, low for out-groups
AggressionProactive and strategicReactive and loyalist
BeliefsOften cynical and disbelieving in ideologyGenuinely believe the ideology (e.g., nationalism, religion)
Relationship with RulesWill break rules to dominateWill enforce rules strictly if told to
DeceptivenessOften lie and manipulateGullible and easy to deceive

Where Their Interests Overlap

Although their motivations differ, SDOs and RWAs often work together, especially in authoritarian systems:

Area of OverlapExplanation
Support for authoritarian leadersRWAs admire strong leaders; SDOs seek to become or serve those leaders for personal gain.
In-group loyaltyRWAs are loyal to their group; SDOs use group identity to rally support and control others.
Hostility toward outsidersBoth often show xenophobia, racism, or opposition to “out-groups,” though for different reasons.
Justification for aggressionSDOs rationalize it as necessary; RWAs see it as righteous when directed by authority.
Intolerance of dissentRWAs fear it as disruptive; SDOs crush it as a threat to power.

Summary

  • SDOs are like the chess masters—they manipulate, dominate, and use ideology as a tool for control.

  • RWAs are like the loyal foot soldiers—they follow rules, seek order, and are susceptible to fear-based messaging.

  • Together, they often form the backbone of authoritarian systems: the SDOs lead, and the RWAs follow.

Altemeyer found this alliance especially dangerous in political systems where the SDOs exploit the fears and loyalty of RWAs to amass and hold power—despite not actually believing in the ideals they promote.

How do SDOs and RWAs correlate with Donald Trump and his followers?

Robert Altemeyer himself, along with John Dean (of Watergate fame), explicitly linked Donald Trump and his base to the SDO-RWA dynamic in their book Authoritarian Nightmare (2020). Here's a breakdown of how Donald Trump maps onto the Social Dominator (SDO) profile, and how many of his followers resemble Right-Wing Authoritarian Followers (RWAs):


Donald Trump as a Social Dominator (SDO)

Altemeyer’s analysis shows Trump fits the SDO profile almost perfectly:

TraitEvidence in Trump’s Behavior
Desire for dominance and controlRepeated emphasis on “winning,” power, loyalty tests, control over media/narrative
AmoralityFrequent lying, disregard for norms, use of threats and insults
ManipulativenessUse of disinformation, gaslighting, scapegoating enemies
Lack of empathyDismissal of COVID deaths, mocking the disabled, separating families at the border
Disdain for democratic normsAttempts to overturn the 2020 election, attacks on the judiciary and press
Hypocrisy and cynicismPanders to religious/right-wing values while clearly not believing in them personally

Altemeyer considered Trump’s score on the Social Dominance Orientation scale to be extremely high—"through the roof."


Trump’s Base as Right-Wing Authoritarian Followers (RWAs)

Many of Trump’s most loyal followers exhibit the three defining traits of RWAs:

1. Authoritarian Submission

  • Loyalty to Trump, even when he contradicts norms, laws, or reality

  • Belief that Trump is a “strong leader” sent to save the country

  • Obedience to his word over traditional institutions

2. Authoritarian Aggression

  • Anger at dissenters (journalists, protesters, Democrats)

  • Support for violence when framed as necessary to “protect America” (e.g., Jan 6, “lock her up” chants)

  • Dehumanizing of out-groups (immigrants, Muslims, LGBTQ+ people, “the liberal elite”)

3. Conventionalism

  • Strong attachment to traditional norms (gender roles, religion, nationalism)

  • Outrage at changing cultural values (e.g., CRT panic, “war on Christmas”)

  • Tendency to view political conflict in black-and-white moral terms


How the SDO–RWA Dynamic Plays Out with Trump

DynamicReal-World Manifestation
SDO manipulates RWA fearsTrump amplifies fear of immigrants, crime, socialism, etc., to mobilize his base
RWA provides unwavering loyaltyEven when Trump’s claims are false or self-serving, his followers support him
Mutual reinforcementThe more Trump defies the “elites,” the more RWAs love him; the more loyalty they show, the more power he grabs
Disregard for truth or consistencyRWAs tolerate contradictions if they feel Trump is defending “their side”
Erosion of democratic normsEnabled by SDO's disregard for rules and RWA’s preference for order over freedom

Summary

  • Trump = Social Dominator: Seeks power for its own sake, uses manipulation, shows little empathy or moral concern.

  • Many Trump supporters = RWAs: Seek safety, order, and a strong leader; easily swayed by fear-based rhetoric; deeply loyal.

This toxic alliance, as Altemeyer warned, can be extremely dangerous to democracy—because it aligns manipulative leadership with blind, obedient loyalty.

If you want, I can show how this dynamic compares historically (e.g., with fascist movements), or unpack how to counter it.


ChatGPT July 2025


Redditor Posts Epstein Trump Connection

Comment from subreddit r/law post titled 

“There are no (Jeffery Epstein) files, but if there were files, I wouldn’t be in them. Also can you look through these files and let me know where I am mentioned, but don’t worry there are absolutely no files, and I am not in them” - Donald Trump.

July 19, 2025 

Also...

"... I never went to the island, and Bill Clinton went there supposedly 28 times." -Donald Trump
July 29, 2025

Following is information posted on Reddit related to a list Trump says doesn't exist, and that his name was maybe planted there in by Democrats: 


Here are all of the Epstein Files that have either been leaked or released.

https://joshwho.net/EpsteinList/gov.uscourts.nysd.447706.1320.0-combined.pdf (verified court documents)

https://joshwho.net/EpsteinList/black-book-unredacted.pdf (verified pre-Bondi) Trump is on page 85, or pdf pg. 80

Here's the flight logs https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21165424-epstein-flight-logs-released-in-usa-vs-maxwell/

The circled individuals are the ones involved in the trafficking ring according to the person who originally released the book.  These people would be “The List “ Here is the story.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsiKUXrlcac

—————————other Epstein Information

https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/Johnson_TrumpEpstein_Calif_Lawsuit.pdf here’s a court doc of Epstein and Trump raping a 13 yr old together.

Some people think this claim is a hoax.  Here is Katies testimony on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnib-OORRRo

Jeffrey Epstein’s Ex Says He Boasted About Being a Mossad Agent https://share.google/jLMGahKlCzfV1RHZq Jeffrey Epstein and Israel both have the same lawyer Alan Dershowitz, Dershowitz says he's building 'legal dream team' to defend Israel in court and on international stage | The Times of Israel https://share.google/Lb9hDOduBWG4Elpid

—————————other information

Peeping on 14-15 year old girls at around 1:40 on the Howard Stern Radio Show: https://youtu.be/iFaQL_kv_QY?si=vBs75kaxPjJJThka

Promise to his daughter: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-ivanka-trump-dating-promise_n_57ee98cbe4b024a52d2ead02 “I have a deal with her. She’s 17 and doing great. She made me promise, swear to her that I would never date a girl younger than her,”  “So as she grows older, the field is getting very limited.”

Modeling agency was probably part of Jeffreys pipeline: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/donald-trump-model-management-illegal-immigration/

Monday

Coping with Corruption

What are things a person can do to cope while living under a corrupt national government that occasionally violates people's rights and where millions of people choose willful ignorance and prefer an authoritarian single party rule that practices passive racism?

1. Protect Your Mental and Emotional Health

  • Limit Doomscrolling: Stay informed, but take breaks from constant bad news to avoid despair or numbness.

  • Build a Support Network: Connect with people who share your values—online or in person. Solidarity reduces isolation.

  • Therapy or Counseling: Processing feelings of anger, fear, or hopelessness with a professional can be empowering.

  • Art, Humor, and Culture: These are powerful coping tools. Watch satire, make music, write—whatever channels the frustration productively.


2. Practice Quiet Resistance and Empowerment

  • Educate Yourself and Others: Learn history, law, and organizing tactics. Share them subtly if you must. Authoritarianism often relies on ignorance.

  • Support Independent Media: Even small donations or subscriptions help resist state-controlled narratives.

  • Practice Small Acts of Resistance: Refuse to participate in hate speech, call out microaggressions when safe, help marginalized people around you.

  • Document and Preserve Truth: When rights violations happen, record, archive, or share them with trusted organizations.


3. Stay Civically Engaged (Even When It Feels Futile)

  • Vote, If Possible: Even small local offices matter. Corrupt regimes often rise locally before going national.

  • Join or Support Advocacy Groups: You don’t have to be on the front lines—graphic designers, researchers, and cooks also power movements.

  • Know Your Rights: Even when laws are unevenly enforced, knowing your rights can offer protection or clarity in a crisis.


4. Find Meaning and Purpose

  • Volunteer or Serve Others: Even in small ways—food banks, mutual aid, tutoring—helping others restores a sense of agency.

  • Preserve Humanity in Daily Life: Acts of kindness, empathy, and justice in everyday situations matter more than we realize under repressive systems.


5. Think Long-Term and Strategically

  • Read about Other Movements: People have survived and overturned injustice in many places—South Africa, Chile, Serbia, East Germany. Their strategies might inspire you.

  • Prepare for Things Getting Worse or Better: Consider savings, passports, training, etc.—but also be ready to help rebuild if things change.

  • Teach the Young: Share values of empathy, critical thinking, and justice with younger generations—this is how change survives.


6. Protect Yourself

  • Use Digital Privacy Tools: If activism becomes dangerous, learn to encrypt, anonymize, and avoid surveillance.

  • Know When to Speak and When to Stay Silent: Bravery matters, but so does survival. Choose your battles wisely.


This kind of life can feel like living in two realities—one where many accept oppression as normal, and another where you know something better is possible. You're not alone in feeling alienated, outraged, or exhausted. But even quiet, consistent resistance—built on truth, care, and vision—can outlast authoritarianism.

ChatGPT

Tuesday

What is Ultimate Attribution Error?

 Ultimate Attribution Error is a concept in social psychology that describes a bias people have when they explain the behavior of individuals from in-groups (the group they identify with) versus out-groups (other groups). It's an extension of the fundamental attribution error, but at a group level.

Summary:

The ultimate attribution error occurs when people attribute:

  • Negative behavior of out-group members to their character or disposition (e.g., "they're just bad people"), and

  • Negative behavior of in-group members to external or situational factors (e.g., "he was under a lot of stress").

Likewise, people often attribute:

  • Positive behavior of in-group members to their disposition (e.g., "she's smart"), but

  • Positive behavior of out-group members to luck or external factors (e.g., "he just got lucky").


Examples:

  1. Race or Ethnic Groups:

    • A white person sees a Black person succeed and says, "He probably got a handout or special treatment" (external), but if a white person succeeds, they say, "She worked hard and earned it" (internal).

    • If a member of a minority group commits a crime, someone might think, "That's just how they are" (internal), but if someone from their own group does, they might say, "He was in a bad situation" (external).

  2. Political Groups:

    • A Democrat might say, “That Republican lied because they’re corrupt” (internal), but if a Democrat lies, “They had to because of political pressure” (external).

    • Vice versa for Republicans viewing Democrats.

  3. National or Cultural Groups:

    • An American sees a foreigner being rude and thinks, "People from that country are just rude" (internal).

    • But if an American is rude abroad, they might say, "He was just having a bad day" (external).

Is this affected by idology?

The ultimate attribution error itself is a psychological bias that can affect anyone, regardless of political ideology—liberal or conservative. It’s a general human tendency to favor one’s in-group and judge out-groups more harshly. That said, there are some nuanced findings in psychology that can help explain how it might play out differently depending on a person’s political leanings.


Key Points:

  • Not inherently tied to conservatism or liberalism: Ultimate attribution error is about group identity and bias, not political orientation. Liberals and conservatives are both capable of this bias when thinking about "their side" vs. "the other side."

  • How it might appear more often in conservatives (in some studies):

    • Conservatives tend to score higher on measures of group loyalty, threat sensitivity, and preference for order and tradition.

    • These traits may make conservative individuals more prone to us-vs-them thinking, which could lead to more frequent or intense ultimate attribution errors when judging out-groups.

    • Example: Some research has found conservatives more likely to attribute poverty to laziness (internal trait), whereas liberals are more likely to cite systemic causes (external factors).

  • How it might show up in liberals:

    • Liberals may be more likely to show ultimate attribution error in the reverse when dealing with groups they feel strongly allied with (e.g., marginalized communities).

    • This can include over-attributing positive actions of minority groups to internal traits while downplaying negative behaviors as solely the result of external pressures.


TL;DR:

The ultimate attribution error is not exclusive to conservatives or liberals. It’s a human bias, but how and where it shows up might depend on the group a person identifies with or opposes. Conservatives might show it more in areas related to tradition, authority, or nationalism; liberals might show it more when defending disadvantaged or progressive groups.

Want a real-world political example broken down from both sides?

ChatGPT

What has changed politically, socially, and economically in Hungary since Victor Orban took office?

 According to ChatGPT:

Viktor Orbán has been Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, leading the country under the Fidesz party. His long tenure has brought significant political, social, and economic changes. Here's a breakdown of what has changed and how freedom, quality of life, and public opinion have been affected.


🔹 Political Changes

Centralization of Power:

  • Orbán’s government has significantly centralized power. Constitutional changes and reforms have weakened checks and balances, including judicial independence and media freedom.

  • Electoral laws were modified in ways that benefit Fidesz, helping it maintain a supermajority in Parliament.

Media Control:

  • Many independent media outlets have been bought by pro-government allies or folded due to pressure. The media landscape is now heavily pro-government, limiting diverse viewpoints.

Civil Society & NGOs:

  • Orbán's government has cracked down on NGOs, especially those receiving foreign funding or involved in human rights or refugee advocacy. Legislation has made it harder for them to operate.

Relations with the EU:

  • Hungary has clashed with the EU over rule of law issues, migration policy, and corruption. Some EU funds have been frozen due to concerns over democratic backsliding.

Freedom Score: According to organizations like Freedom House, Hungary has shifted from a “consolidated democracy” to a “hybrid regime”—a mix of democratic and autocratic features.

➡️ Are people more or less free?

  • Less free politically and in terms of civil liberties, especially regarding press, judiciary, and dissenting voices.


🔹 Social Changes

National Identity & Migration:

  • Orbán has emphasized nationalism, Christianity, and traditional family values.

  • His government is strongly anti-immigration and has run controversial campaigns against the EU and figures like George Soros.

Education and Culture:

  • Universities and cultural institutions have been brought under greater state control.

  • The government promotes a nationalist interpretation of history and culture.

LGBTQ+ Rights:

  • Rights for LGBTQ+ individuals have been restricted. For example, a law was passed banning the depiction of LGBTQ+ content to minors, similar to Russia’s “gay propaganda” law.

➡️ Social atmosphere:

  • More controlled, with growing intolerance toward marginalized groups and less space for progressive or liberal movements.


🔹 Economic Changes

Growth & Investment:

  • Hungary has seen decent economic growth, low unemployment, and increased foreign investment, especially from China and Russia.

  • Orbán’s government emphasizes low corporate taxes, making Hungary attractive to multinationals like BMW and Samsung.

Wages and Cost of Living:

  • Wages have risen, but so have prices, especially for housing.

  • Inflation and housing costs have been significant issues, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Corruption:

  • High levels of corruption are reported, especially in the use of EU funds. The perception is that political allies and family members of Orbán have become very wealthy.

➡️ Has quality of life improved?

  • Mixed: Material conditions (jobs, wages) have improved for many, but inequality, corruption, and housing affordability remain problems.


🔹 What Do Orbán's Supporters Think?

Supporters tend to believe:

  • He restored national pride and sovereignty.

  • Hungary is safer and more stable under his leadership.

  • Economic growth and job creation are signs of good governance.

  • He's standing up to global elites, the EU, and progressive ideology.

  • Traditional values and national identity are protected.

Support base:

  • Strong in rural areas and among older, conservative voters.

  • State media reinforces positive narratives about his leadership.


🔹 Summary: Is Hungary Better or Worse Off?

AspectDirection of Change
Political Freedom↓ Less free
Media & Civil Society↓ Less independent
Social Tolerance↓ More restrictive
Economy & Jobs↑ Improved (mostly)
Inequality & Corruption↔/↑ Ongoing problems
Public Sentiment↔ Divided

If you're curious, I can also show how Hungary compares to its neighbors, or how Orbán's Hungary is perceived in international politics. Would that be helpful?

Thursday

"Money, Lies, and God: Inside the Movement to Destroy American Democracy," author Katherine Stewart

Chat GPT ​Summary: In "Money, Lies, and God: Inside the Movement to Destroy American Democracy," author Katherine Stewart explores a coordinated effort among various right-wing factions aiming to undermine American democracy. Published in February 2025, the book delves into the alliances formed between Christian nationalists, billionaire donors, and conservative ideologues within the Republican Party.Wikipedia+5NewPages.com+5The Guardian+5Ms. Magazine+3The Guardian+3Wikipedia+3

Stewart identifies three primary components driving this movement:The Guardian

  1. Wealth: The infusion of substantial financial resources from ultra-wealthy donors destabilizes the political system by promoting deregulation, tax cuts for the affluent, and policies that erode labor protections.BookBrowse.com+2Wikipedia+2The Guardian+2

  2. Disinformation: The strategic dissemination of false information serves to divide the populace and advance an undemocratic agenda.

  3. Christian Nationalism: Religious rhetoric is employed to mobilize working-class voters, promoting the belief that governance should be exclusively in the hands of white, male, conservative Christians, while others are expected to comply.Wikipedia

Five Groups

The book categorizes the movement's participants into five groups:BookBrowse.com

Stewart emphasizes that the funder class is religiously diverse, encompassing not only evangelicals but also Catholics, Jews, and atheists.The Guardian+5Wikipedia+5Ms. Magazine+5

Throughout her investigation, Stewart highlights the movement's exploitation of contemporary issues such as immigration, gender roles, and economic anxiety to further its objectives. She underscores the strategic and well-organized nature of these efforts, contrasting them with the less coordinated pro-democracy forces.The Santa Barbara Independent+1The Guardian+1The Guardian+1Ms. Magazine+1

Despite the alarming findings, Stewart offers a message of hope, urging pro-democracy advocates to organize and strategize effectively in response. She believes that a majority of Americans support democratic principles over authoritarianism and emphasizes the need for persistent effort to protect democracy.The Guardian

"Money, Lies, and God" has received critical acclaim for its thorough research and compelling narrative. Publishers Weekly describes it as "an urgently needed background on the 2024 election results," while Kirkus Reviews calls it "an impassioned takedown of a 'militant minority.'"NewPages.com+2Wikipedia+2BookBrowse.com+2BookBrowse.com+1Wikipedia+1

Overall, the book serves as a clarion call to recognize and counteract the forces threatening American democracy.

Related: Reactionary nihilism’: how a rightwing movement strives to end US democracy - The Guardian

ChatGPT

Monday

What do Americans who favor tarrifs get wrong about trade deficits before they are enacted?

 Americans who favor tariffs often misunderstand how trade deficits work before tariffs are enacted. Here are some key misconceptions:

Misconceptions About Trade Deficits & Tariffs

  1. Viewing Trade Deficits as a Loss

    • Many believe that a trade deficit (importing more than exporting) means a country is "losing" money. In reality, trade deficits often reflect a strong economy where consumers and businesses have purchasing power. The U.S. trade deficit is largely due to foreign investment in American assets (like stocks, bonds, and real estate), which balances the flow of money.
  2. Expecting Tariffs to Reduce Trade Deficits Automatically

    • Supporters assume that imposing tariffs will reduce the trade deficit by discouraging imports. However, trade deficits are influenced by broader factors like currency strength, consumer demand, and investment flows. Tariffs may shift trade to other countries rather than bring manufacturing back.
  3. Underestimating Costs Passed to Consumers

    • Tariffs are often seen as a tax on foreign producers, but in practice, domestic consumers and businesses end up paying higher prices for goods. This can reduce purchasing power and economic growth.
  4. Ignoring Retaliation and Supply Chains

    • Countries affected by tariffs often retaliate with their own tariffs, harming exporters. Additionally, many American industries rely on imported materials, so tariffs can make domestic manufacturing more expensive.

When Are Tariffs Effective?

Tariffs can be useful in specific scenarios, including:

  • Infant Industry Protection: Temporary tariffs can help nascent domestic industries develop before facing global competition.
  • National Security: Protecting industries vital to defense, such as steel or semiconductors, from foreign dependence.
  • Counteracting Unfair Trade Practices: If a country heavily subsidizes its industries or engages in dumping (selling below cost), tariffs can level the playing field.

When Are Tariffs Harmful?

  • Long-Term Protectionism: Prolonged tariffs can lead to inefficiency, higher consumer costs, and stagnation in domestic industries.
  • Broad-Based Consumer Goods Tariffs: These often harm consumers more than they help local industries.
  • Retaliation and Trade Wars: If other nations impose counter-tariffs, American exporters suffer.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Many industries rely on international components; tariffs increase costs and reduce competitiveness.

Should Tariffs Be a Long-Term Revenue Source?

  • Historically, tariffs were a major revenue source before income taxes, but they are not reliable today.
  • Relying on tariffs for government revenue is regressive, disproportionately impacting lower-income consumers through higher prices.
  • Modern economies use income and corporate taxes as more stable and efficient revenue sources.

While tariffs can be a strategic tool, they should not be the foundation of a long-term government budget. Their use should be carefully targeted, temporary, and paired with policies that enhance domestic competitiveness.

ChatGPT, March 2025

Thursday

What does a lonely horse think about when he stands still in a field?

A lonely horse standing still in a field might be thinking about where its herd or human companions are.

Horses are social animals, so if they're alone, they might feel uneasy, bored, or even a little sad. They could be scanning the horizon, listening for distant sounds, or waiting for something familiar to appear. Some might try to self-soothe by swaying, nibbling on grass absentmindedly, or just standing with their head lowered in a kind of quiet resignation. If they’ve had close bonds before, they might even be reminiscing in their own way, longing for company.

Define Illiberal Democracy

 Illiberal democracy is a governing system where elections take place, but democratic institutions, civil liberties, and the rule of law are weakened or manipulated to maintain power. It combines elements of democratic legitimacy (such as voting) with authoritarian control over key institutions.

Key Features of Illiberal Democracy:

  1. Elections Without Fairness – Leaders hold elections, but they manipulate the system through voter suppression, media control, or changes to election laws to ensure they remain in power.
  2. Weak Rule of Law – Courts, law enforcement, and government institutions are controlled or influenced by the ruling party, limiting their independence.
  3. Suppression of Opposition – Political opponents, activists, and independent media face restrictions, intimidation, or legal action.
  4. Centralization of Power – Leaders expand executive authority, often limiting the role of legislatures, regional governments, or independent agencies.
  5. Erosion of Civil Liberties – Freedom of speech, press, and assembly are restricted, often under the guise of national security, public order, or cultural preservation.
  6. Nationalism & Populism – Illiberal democracies often emphasize national identity, conservative social values, and resistance to foreign influence (e.g., the EU, the UN, or global corporations).

Examples of Illiberal Democracies:

  • Hungary under Viktor Orbán – Uses elections to maintain legitimacy but weakens judicial independence, media freedom, and opposition parties.
  • Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – Holds elections but jails journalists, weakens opposition, and consolidates executive power.
  • Russia under Vladimir Putin (before full autocracy) – Maintained the appearance of democracy while controlling media, limiting opposition, and manipulating election outcomes.

Is India an illiberal democracy?

India has historically been considered the world's largest democracy, but in recent years, some political analysts and global organizations have described it as an illiberal democracy due to concerns about declining civil liberties, press freedom, and institutional independence.

Arguments Supporting the Illiberal Democracy Label:

  1. Media and Press Restrictions:

    • India has seen increasing pressure on independent media, with journalists facing arrests, harassment, or raids by tax authorities.
    • International press freedom organizations (e.g., Reporters Without Borders) have noted declining press freedom rankings.
  2. Judicial & Institutional Concerns:

    • Critics argue that government influence over institutions like the judiciary and election commission has grown.
    • Some key court decisions have favored the ruling party, raising concerns about judicial independence.
  3. Civil Liberties & Minority Rights:

    • There have been restrictions on protests (e.g., crackdowns on farmers' protests and anti-CAA demonstrations).
    • Critics say laws such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and actions in Kashmir (revoking Article 370) have targeted minority communities.
  4. Electoral Fairness & Political Opposition:

    • While elections are held and remain largely free, opposition leaders have faced investigations, arrests, and political pressure.
    • Electoral bonds and funding systems favor the ruling party, making competition unequal.

Counterarguments: Why India is Still a Democracy:

  1. Regular Elections: India still holds competitive elections with high voter participation, and opposition parties continue to win in various states.
  2. Independent Judiciary (Though Controversial): The Supreme Court has made rulings against the government in some cases, showing some level of independence.
  3. Active Civil Society: Protests, activism, and social movements remain strong, even if they face suppression.

Conclusion:

India is still a democracy but has shown illiberal tendencies under recent governments, particularly in how dissent, media, and institutions are handled. Organizations like Freedom House have downgraded India’s status from “Free” to “Partly Free,” and some scholars call it an "electoral autocracy" rather than a full illiberal democracy.

Comparison: Illiberal Democracy vs. Full Authoritarianism

1. Elections

  • Illiberal Democracy: Held regularly but often manipulated (unfair advantages, media control, suppression of opposition).
  • Full Authoritarianism: Elections (if any) are rigged, symbolic, or non-existent.

2. Opposition

  • Illiberal Democracy: Opposition parties exist but face restrictions (arrests, financial pressure, legal cases).
  • Full Authoritarianism: No real opposition; dissent is criminalized.

3. Media Freedom

  • Illiberal Democracy: Restricted but not entirely suppressed; independent media faces intimidation and censorship.
  • Full Authoritarianism: Fully controlled by the state; no independent journalism.

4. Judicial System

  • Illiberal Democracy: Judiciary exists but is influenced by the ruling party.
  • Full Authoritarianism: Judiciary is fully controlled by the regime and lacks independence.

5. Civil Liberties

  • Illiberal Democracy: Restricted (e.g., surveillance, protest bans, targeted laws) but still present.
  • Full Authoritarianism: Almost non-existent; dissent is criminalized.

6. Rule of Law

  • Illiberal Democracy: Exists but is selectively applied to favor the ruling party.
  • Full Authoritarianism: The leader or ruling party’s will is the law.

7. Power Structure

  • Illiberal Democracy: Centralized leadership with weak checks and balances.
  • Full Authoritarianism: Absolute control by a dictator, ruling party, or military.

8. Nationalism & Populism

  • Illiberal Democracy: Often emphasized to justify power (e.g., protecting culture, religion, or national identity).
  • Full Authoritarianism: May be used, but control is more based on fear and coercion.

Examples of Each System:

  • Illiberal Democracy: Hungary (Viktor Orbán), Turkey (Erdogan), India (some argue under Modi), Russia (before turning fully authoritarian)
  • Full Authoritarianism: North Korea (Kim Jong-un), China (Xi Jinping), Saudi Arabia (Mohammed bin Salman), Russia (under Putin post-2022)

Key Difference:

An illiberal democracy still holds elections and maintains a façade of democracy, while a full authoritarian regime eliminates meaningful political competition and rules through repression.

ChatGPT. Feb. 2025

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